I have the week off for Thanksgiving, so some friends and I have spent the last few days in Napa hanging out and doing some wine tasting. We got a recommendation to visit Freemark Abbey Winery, which we did, where I came across what seems like a pretty good problem-based investigation. Here is the scenario as they describe it (based on actual events):
"In September 1976 William Jaeger, a member of the partnership that owned Freemark Abbey Winery, had to make a decision: should he harvest the Riesling grapes immediately or leave them on the vines despite the approaching storm? A storm just before the harvest is usually detrimental, often ruining the crop. A warm, light rain, however, will sometimes cause a beneficial mold, botrytis cinerea, to form on the grape skins. The result is a luscious, complex sweet wine, highly valued by connoisseurs."
Basically, they had to decide: harvest the grapes now and guarantee the production of a moderately priced wine, OR wait for the incoming storm and hope that it encourages the mold growth necessary for production of high end wine. There are some accompanying details that the winery used in the decision making process (which I have somewhat shortened here):
  • There was a 50% chance the storm would hit Napa Valley
  • There was a 40% chance that, if the storm did strike, it would lead to the development of botrytis mold
  • If Jaeger pulled grapes before the storm, he could produce wine that would sell for $2.85 per bottle
  • If he didn't pull and the storm DID strike (but didn't produce the mold), he could produce wine that would sell for $2.00 per bottle
  • If he didn't pull and the storm DID strike (and did produce the mold), he could produce wine that would sell for $8.00 per bottle (although at 30% less volume because of the process to produce this wine)
  • If he didn't pull and the storm DIDN'T strike, he could produce wine that would sell for $3.50 per bottle

I can imagine several different versions of the problem depending on the group of students you were working with (by adding/removing details and alternative scenarios). I am attaching the printouts that I photographed in case anyone wants the details.
freemark_front.jpg
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freemark_back.jpg
File Size: 2842 kb
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